Can robots save aging?

In terms of age composition, the population aged 60 and over is 264.02 million, accounting for 18.70% (of which the population aged 65 and over is 190.64 million, accounting for 13.50%). Compared with 2010, the proportion of people aged 60 and over increased by 5.44 percentage points. As soon as the data came out, the proportion of "aging" in China continued to rise and other hot topics attracted extensive attention from all walks of life. Let's take a look at the aging social standard defined by the United Nations: the traditional standard is that the elderly over the age of 60 in a region reach 10% of the total population. The new standard stipulates that the elderly over 65 account for 7% of the total population, that is, the region is regarded as entering an aging society. It can be seen that both traditional standards and new standards show that we are now in a slightly aging society. The growth rate slows down and the aging accelerates. The most direct impact of this change is the reduction of the labor force population and the increase of social pension pressure. Phenomenon 2: Labor panic Not long ago, a news article wrote that the previous recruitment sites were lined up by workers waiting for the boss to pick. But now it's the opposite. At present, workers pick bosses, and such a recruitment scene is being staged in various manufacturing plants. From "the boss selects the employee" to "the employee selects the boss", it can be said that Feng Shui turns in turn. The topic of labor panic in manufacturing industry is also talked about repeatedly. According to the ranking of the 100 occupations in which the national recruitment is greater than the "most short of workers" in the first quarter of 2021 released by the Ministry of human resources and social security, there is a large employment gap in manufacturing jobs. Among the 29 newly ranked occupations, 20 are directly related to the manufacturing industry, accounting for nearly 70%. More and more young people are no longer willing to engage in monotonous and repetitive workshop work. Manufacturing enterprises are generally facing employment difficulties. Even if the monthly salary reaches tens of thousands of yuan, it is likely that they will not be able to recruit a skilled worker. Will robots be the solution? China's aging population and rising labor costs are the long-term support for the development of industrial robots. Do you agree with this argument? First of all, the problem of labor panic makes it more and more difficult for manufacturing enterprises to recruit workers. For enterprises, they generally face two choices: one is to raise wages, and the other is to use industrial robots or automation technology upgrading to reduce the pressure on labor costs. In the article "why don't young people go to manufacturing" we wrote before, we can see that the average wage of domestic manufacturing industry continues to rise, and simply raising wages has no attraction to young people at present. With the gradual disappearance of the demographic dividend, the rise of various costs such as raw materials, and the decline of the proportion of school-age labor force year by year, it is urgent to replace labor with automatic equipment. Let's look at the problem of aging. A study by Daron Acemoglu, Professor of Applied Economics at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), and Pascal Restrepo, Boston University, shows that the country with the highest investment in robots was the country with the fastest aging process from 1993 to 2014. According to the data results, for every 10 percentage points increase in the aging rate, the number of robots per 1000 workers will increase by 0.9. In contrast to some aging countries with the same low birth rate, such as Japan, in order to cope with population aging, first, industrial robots are used to fill the population vacancy of labor force, and second, service robots are used to provide services for the elderly with service needs. According to the 2019 global industrial robot density data of national and regional manufacturing released by IFR, Singapore (918 sets / 10000 people), South Korea (855 sets / 10000 people) and Japan (364 sets / 10000 people) are the top three, while China ranks 15th in the world with 187 sets / 10000 people, which still has great room for improvement. Countries such as South Korea, Singapore and Germany are all aging countries, but they are also among the top countries in the density of industrial robots. Is the production technology and cost of industrial robots attractive enough? Under the background of aging and difficult recruitment, more enterprises are once again considering machine replacement and automation upgrading. However, many small and medium-sized enterprises are more worried that factories need funds to purchase equipment. Is it worthwhile to replace machines? First of all, the reason why many small and medium-sized enterprises do not deploy robots to their operations is that there seems to be no trained workers who can use and maintain them, so they can not maximize the return on investment. In addition, in addition to the cost of the robot itself, it is also an expense to recruit professionals who know how to program and maintain industrial robots. These factors will make the person in charge of small and medium-sized enterprises feel that the total investment is too large. So, how about the cost and efficiency of industrial robots compared with manpower? A reader once said to Xiaobian: in fact, the global labor cost is still cheap and efficient. If enterprises choose to transfer production areas, for example, some labor-intensive foreign-funded enterprises will transfer industries to areas with low labor costs such as Vietnam and Cambodia. The local production cost is lower than the operation cost of industrial robots, so why should the company choose industrial robots to replace cheap labor? (unless you're worried about the transfer of manufacturing) However, some people have refuted this issue. "In the past, when customers decided to buy robot equipment, they mainly considered the calculation of personnel replacement cost, but since the epidemic last year, more and more enterprises began to realize the value of automation in dealing with emergencies," said an employee of a robot company. "The cost of robots is not as high as expected. The net cost of each robot ranges from 20000 yuan to 70000 yuan. According to the calculation that a robot replaces a worker, the cost can be earned back in half a year to a year." the technical director of a company told the media. The cost of industrial robots decreased significantly. In the previous Shenzhen industrial exhibition, a manufacturer clearly priced 8500 yuan / set including tax (Note: at the agency price, at least 10 sets need to be purchased, and only the robot body, not fixtures, fixtures and other accessories). Another new business model is also trying to reduce the investment cost. The "robot as a service (RAAS)" business model reduces the threshold for users to realize automation through robots. Customers do not need to invest in hardware, so the company does not need fixed capital, fixed cost or special robot operators. Labor cannot be completely replaced With the gradual popularization of automation equipment such as industrial robots, the highly repetitive work in the factory will certainly be replaced, and the number of ordinary workers will gradually decrease, but the management and maintenance technicians of corresponding automation equipment will increase. Even if the manufacturing process does not require the participation of workers, it also requires manual programming and maintenance of the robot, so as to ensure the operation of the whole production process. For example, when industrial robots are not used, dozens of people may be required to operate a production line. After large-scale replacement of industrial robots, only a few people may be required for auxiliary work, and more of these people are programming and maintenance of industrial robots. The analysis report on the employment situation of industrial robot system operators released by the Ministry of human resources and social security shows that enterprises or companies among 67% of employees are introducing industrial robots or intelligent manufacturing production lines as production equipment. It can be seen that the job demand of industrial robot system operators is increasing. 44.44% of industrial robot system operators have college degree, 1.48% are master students, and 45% have college degree or below. The employment threshold of industrial robot system operators is low. Moreover, the report shows that the salary of 45% of industrial robot system operators is twice the local average salary, and the salary of industrial robot system operators is generally higher than the local average salary. We have been discussing that machine replacement can deal with the problems of aging, fewer children and difficult recruitment, but machine replacement does not need people. On the contrary, what we need most is people. In this process, some general workers who only carry out repetitive work are reduced, and the demand for professional and skilled workers is bound to increase significantly. Where can I find this kind of talent? How to cultivate more suitable talents is still a problem to be solved. Accelerate intelligent upgrades and never go out of date Under the background of serious population aging, reduced labor supply and rising labor costs, industrial robots can indeed fill the lack of part of the labor force. However, industrial robots will obviously not be omnipotent in dealing with the problem of aging. Otherwise, as a country with many of the world's top industrial robot technologies and enterprises and a high density of industrial robots, Japan will not delay the retirement age to 70 to cope with the social labor crisis caused by fewer children and aging. It is undeniable that with the further development of aging, it will further accelerate the intelligent transformation of enterprises. Aging not only means the reduction of young labor force, but also means that intelligent manufacturing will usher in rapid development. Manufacturing enterprises must rely on technological upgrading to accelerate the transformation to intelligent manufacturing in order to achieve a balance in terms of social aging, rising labor costs and improving enterprise production efficiency.